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Clients, friends, and colleagues:
The January numbers are in: they show ~2% year-over-year increases in median sale prices for both single-family homes and condos in San Francisco.
Because January data largely reflects homes that went into contract in December (which isn't a ton of data), let's talk about the current sentiment on the ground. What us agents, in tune with the market, have been seeing in terms of offers, open house activity, and buyer sentiment over these first 6 weeks on 2024.
Open house visitor numbers have genuinely surged, new listings coming on market have risen, the pipeline of coming listings is filling up faster than last year, and the number of homes going into contract is climbing rapidly. There's no doubt that the market is waking up after a slow last half of 2023.
Well-priced homes in quality locations are experiencing bidding frenzies (several I know of received 10+ offers, with one receiving 20!), and while this is the high-end of the demand spectrum, many condos (outside of downtown locations) are also experiencing offer dates and multiple bids.
And this is happening during winter, typically our slowest season. Despite all of these wet weekends of open houses, buyers are waking up. Why? Strong economic conditions and interest rates.
Interest rates have come down from nearly 8% in the fall of 2023 to ~6.5% earlier this year. Despite a dip in the stock market earlier this week based on the new inflation report (where markets hoped for bigger inflation declines), the Dow is up 2.8% on the year and the Nasdaq is up nearly 8%. According to the WSJ, the new reading implies that while the Fed had been expected to begin cutting its benchmark rate earlier, now "a June start date is more likely."
Based on current demand, I anticipate firm year-over-year price increases for our spring selling season (March, April, May). And if we see major movement in interest rate declines, currently poised for summer, it will have a huge impact on our median sale prices.
Remember: supply and demand metrics vary widely based on location, price point, and property type. I'm familiar with each segment and am happy to relay specific insights. Feel free to reach out to me directly with any questions.
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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