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Clients, friends, and colleagues:
It's a HOT & cold market out there! While it's true that many homes are seeing very strong activity (a few recent anecdotes: a single-family in Noe recently received 20+ offers, a multi-family in NoPa just sold almost $1M over asking, and another home in District 5 just went into contract for nearly $1M over asking), others are struggling with foot traffic and having price reductions.
In general data terms: home prices, sales volume, luxury sales, new listings, and overbidding have all increased as we move deeper into spring, but price reductions also increased in April.
When demand is segmented like this, understanding the nuances of our dynamic market becomes paramount.
Inflation & Interest Rates
While we're seeing higher net worth clientele make big investments despite the recent upticks in mortgage rates (and our city has a lot of said individuals), inflation & rates have a big impact on our general housing supply and sales data.
The general inflation reading for March - released in April - unexpectedly ticked up to 3.5%, significantly higher than the Fed's goal of 2%. This caused mortgage rates to climb back above 7% - though remaining well below rates seen last fall. As for predictions on where rates will head - speculation is all over the board. For the time being, the Fed has been standing pat.
A few key stats in San Francisco (year-over-year)
Luxury Home Sales ($5M+): up 68%
Median Home Sale Prices: up 9.5%
Median Condo Sale Prices: down 2.1%
Median Days on Market (Homes): 13 (down 7%)
Median Days on Market (Condos): 27 (down 10%)
The general trend is onwards and upwards in San Francisco: the fresh April data in this report provides more evidence that Q4 2023 was the bottom of our recent market cycle. However, I still see many opportunities readily available at prices well below pre-pandemic highs.
Remember, San Francisco demand is heavily segmented. Let me know if you have any specific questions; I'm happy to help.
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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