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Clients, friends, and colleagues:
Interest rates remain over 7% with nationwide averages for the 30yr Fixed at 7.19% and the 15yr Fixed at 6.54%.
Because of these higher rates, we're seeing buyers pay all cash at the highest clip in over 8 years! (this is at the national level)
September is often the single month of the year with the highest number of new listings, with luxury homes commonly seeing a large spike in autumn sales.
While September inventory data won't surface until the end of the month, many of us agents on the ground are feeling a continued lack of inventory. It's the same narrative: it's hard to sell when you're locked into a historically low interest rate, below 3% in many cases.
This reduction in inventory was an oversight for many housing economists. As the Wall Street Journal put it:
"The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year... There still aren't enough homes for sale to meet demand."
Generally speaking, the market rebounded much more strongly in 2023 than seemed possible at the end of 2022, when, after hitting historic peaks during the pandemic boom, economic demand indicators hit their lowest points since the great recession. This recovery is much more complicated at local levels, especially in the Bay Area.
In San Francisco we have distinct differences between the house and condo markets in different parts of the city. These differences are illustrated in the below charts & graphs.
After the usual summer slowdown from spring, the autumn selling season began after Labor Day and runs until early-mid November, when the market typically begins its big, mid-winter holiday slowdown. By Thanksgiving, the number of new listings coming on market has plummeted, and December commonly sees by far the lowest level of monthly sales activity.
But, in the meantime, we expect to see substantial activity this fall.
As always, I'm here and happy to help with your specific needs.
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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